Afraid of Being Mugged?

Last week we discussed the impact of population on the planet. Since then, several friends told me they started carrying pepper spray. I decided to delve into a subset of that question to see if population density affects crime. Following is a summary of my findings. For more information delve into the references at the end.

I started by exploring the mid-to-late 1990s, a period when homicides and property crime rates dropped without warning, a time when many of the myths that had been spouted unraveled. Most people believed that with spatial distances reduced, aggression will increase along with the chance of being victimized. But, instead of investing in their neighborhoods, residents join networks of like-minded people spread throughout the city.

Despite logic, homicide rates plunged in the late 90s by 43 percent. It occurred in all geographic areas and democratic groups, and every type of crime. Curious as to why, Steven Levitt, writing for the Journal of Economic Perspectives, compiled numerous studies conducted at the time. Through his research, he recognized six myths that played little or no role in crime’s decline and mentioned four that did.

Myths

1) A strong economy reduces crime. Levitt didn’t find proof connecting the drop in crime rate to the strong economy of the late 90s aside from the fact that local governments had more money to spend on community policing.

2 ) Aging demographics played a role–older citizens commit fewer crimes. This statistic was counterbalanced by the baby boomer echo, a group that committed most of the crimes.

3) Gun control laws reduce crime. Buy-backs and gun control laws had little impact on crime reduction. Those who commit crimes don’t take advantage of these programs.

4) Better policing strategies reduce crime. New York, the most innovative state, didn’t do significantly better than states that didn’t employ their methods though this finding is somewhat controversial. With community-based policing, crime-fighting enforcement of nuisance activities like panhandling was helped, and improved technology helped in identifying criminal hot spots.

5) Laws allowing for concealed weapons reduced crimes. Studies don’t support the claim that armed citizens defer potential offenders. Unless you wear a holster, it’s hard to grab a weapon when surprised by a criminal.

6) Increased use of capital punishment. Capital punishment doesn’t explain why robberies declined and it isn’t likely to influence a murderer bent on revenge.

Likely factors for the decline

1) Increased policing meant a faster response time.

2) The Rising Prison Population. More people were incarcerated. Most were drug-related offenses, but parole revocation increased and longer sentences were dolled out.

3) The Receding Crack Epidemic. Crack cocaine, used primarily by young black males, began to decline.

4) The Legalization of Abortion. Twenty years after Roe vs. Wade, it was recognized that unwanted children are at a greater risk to become criminals. Legalizing abortion reduced the number of unwanted births. That in turn put fewer criminals on the streets.

Crime today

The so-called scaling law accounts for the size of a city’s wealth creation, knowledge production, criminality, and other aspects of urbanization. Yet its use is not straightforward. When researchers look at different crime types, they find vast differences between homogenous and mixed communities. It is best not to use unequivocal statements like, “the greater the population the more crime.” Our citizens are not rats in a caged experiment and the current increase in crime isn’t the same for equally dense populations. Governance, poverty, and social norms may be more important.

Crime rose dramatically in the U.S. during the Covid-19 pandemic, increasing by 30 percent in large cities, and 20 percent in those with fewer than 50,000 residents. It grew equally in cities run by Republicans and by Democrats, though red states experienced some of the highest murder rates. The rise was concentrated among younger people in poor and disadvantaged communities.

Murder Trends by Region and Population Group (2019-2020)

Percentage of Increase

Northeast 36.1%

Midwest 36.2%

South 26.0%

West 26.7%

Population Groups

Major Cities (250,000) 34.2%

Metropolitan Counties 17.4%

Nonmetropolitan Counties 19.7%

Suburban Areas 20.0%

Aside from motor vehicle thefts, property crimes decreased. Despite the overall increase in crime, the nation hasn’t returned to the high rates of the early 1990s. The Brennan Center for Justice illuminates the following myths and reasons for the increase in crime post-Covid.

Myths

1. Recent criminal justice reforms, like early release from jail, bail reform laws, and pretrial detention law changes, aren’t significant contributors to the upward trend.
2. Policing practices don’t have a direct link to crime. De-policing policies don’t explain why violent crime rose and property crime didn’t.

Likely reasons for the increase

1. More guns are in private hands. 77 percent of murders last year were committed with a firearm, the highest share ever. The time between its legal purchase and its appearance at a crime scene was shorter than in previous years.
2. Covid-19 created the most unequal socioeconomic situation in U.S. history. Those challenged to meet basic needs faced the added trauma of sickness and death. Non-profits that ordinarily play a key role in public safety had to limit their services. Violence intervention programs dealt with clients virtually instead of on the streets. The closing of community spaces, schools, summer programs, pools, and libraries left communities without safe places to go outside of homes. Remember that most crime occurs in poor communities.
3. Mental health issues worsened as inequalities in the delivery of services widened.
4. Racially and economically disadvantaged communities became more segregated from the rest of society. Many struggling communities fell apart.

The Brennan Center warns against responding to rising crime rates with policies that failed in the past. Punitive sentencing and pretrial detention never worked and the collateral consequences of incarceration were disastrous. Despite that, the prison population remains four times higher than in the 1980s at a tremendous cost to the public. It is a drag on the earring potential of the millions of incarcerated Americans who can’t vote or find jobs.

Understanding population statistics in relation to crime has to be nuanced. New York City, with a population of 8,467,513 has 5.8 violent crimes per 100,000 and 15.6 property crimes per 100,000. It ranks among the safest of large cities in America.

The most dangerous city is St. Louis, Missouri, with a population of 304,709 down from 750,177 ten years earlier. It has unstable housing, a poor education system, and a crippled economy. Detroit, Michigan with a population of 624,177 down from 713,026 in 2010, is also crime-ridden. With the loss of manufacturing jobs and desegregation politics, it has become one of the poorest major cities. Baltimore, Maryland with a population of 578,658 has been trending downwards for decades and is also plagued by poverty and unemployment.

10 Most Dangerous Cities in the U.S. according to Forbes. (Population recorded within city boundaries, not the metro area)

1. St. Louis, Missouri (304,709)
2. Jackson, Mississippi (426,000)
3. Detroit, Michigan (624,177)
4. New Orleans, Louisiana (1.26 million)
5. Baltimore, Maryland (578,658)
6. Memphis, Tennessee (630,348)
7. Cleveland, Ohio (383,331)
8. Baton Rouge, Louisiana (870,569)
9. Kansas City, Missouri (1,698,000)
10. Shreveport, Louisiana (323,000)

Safest Large Cities ( population over 300,000)

1. Virginia Beach, Virginia (457,672)
2. Honolulu, Hawaii (352,335)
3. Henderson, Nevada (322,178)
4. El Paso, Texas (963,000)
5. Mesa, Arizona (517, 302)
6. San Diego, California (1,402,838)
7. Raleigh, North Carolina (480,419)
8. Anaheim, California ( 345,940 )
9. San Jose, California (1,000,008)
10. Santa Ana, California (309,441)
11. New York City (8,467,513)
12. Austin, Texas (964,177)
13. Arlington, Texas (400,032)
14. Las Vegas, Nevada (651,124)
15. Riverside, California (317,261)

Conclusion: Unless you live in a very poor neighborhood, it is not likely that you will be mugged. With the possible exception of your automobile, your property won’t be robbed. To reduce crime, poverty has to be eliminated and people assured a job even if social programs are the means to do so. It is much less expensive to have everyone employed than to have them remain poor, drug addicted, and have to pay for social services and incarceration.

References:

Oliveira, M. (2021) More crime in cities? On the scaling laws of crime and the inadequacy of per capita rankings-a cross-country study.Crime Science Journal.  retrieved from https://crimesciencejournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40163-021-00155-8

Levitt, S. (2004) Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990’s: four factors that explain the Decline and Six that Do Not. retrieved from https://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf

Website (2022) 100 Safest Cities in America in 2022.  CCTV Camera world based on FBI information. retrieved from https://www.cctvcameraworld.com/safest-cities-in-america.html

Website 15 Cities with Highest Crime Rate in the US (2022). USA by numbers. retrieved from https://usabynumbers.com/cities-with-highest-crime-rate/#:

Grawert, A. & Kim, N. (2022) Myths and Realities: Understanding Recent Trends in Violent Crime.Brennan Center for Justice.  retrieved from https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/myths-and-realities-understanding-recent-trends-violent-crime

Bloom, L.. (2022) Crime in America: Study Reveals the 10 Most Unsafe Cities. (It’s Not Where You Think) Forbes. retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2022/02/23/crime-in-america-study-reveals-the-10-most-dangerous-cities-its-not-where-you-think/?sh=58b53e8e7710 —————————————————————————————————————————–